The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report indicates that the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has favourably shifted the balance of risks, reducing headwinds from the West Asia conflict. However, it cautions that exchange rate volatility could increase if crude oil prices spike due to delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Market participants are keenly awaiting regular, preferably weekly, updates from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR (B), deposits, following the central bank's directive for banks to submit daily data on these inflows.
'Rate cut looks unlikely and there is reason to believe that the cycle is over.'
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Infosys, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HCL Technologies and Tata Steel were the biggest laggards. Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank were the gainers.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
State-owned enterprises in India are projected to significantly increase their overseas borrowings, potentially exceeding $15 billion in FY27, driven by the Reserve Bank of India's new concessional forex swap facility which offers a 3 per cent funding-cost advantage.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the central government have introduced a package of measures, including tax exemptions for FPIs on government securities and a concessional foreign-exchange swap facility, aiming to attract up to $50 billion in foreign capital. This initiative is designed to strengthen India's balance of payments and potentially cover the projected BoP gap for FY27.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra, and Deputy Governors Poonam Gupta, T Rabi Sankar, Swaminathan J, and S C Murmu on Friday addressed issues during the post-policy media interaction.
The central bank's next monetary policy review is scheduled for April 5. It had kept the policy rate unchanged in its February meeting on fears of inflation.
The Indian banking system's net liquidity surplus has reached a four-year high of Rs 4.57 trillion, driven by maturing government securities, with further maturities expected to push the surplus to around 5 trillion.
At present, the repo rate acts as the policy rate when liquidity is in deficit mode while reverse repo becomes the operating rate when there liquidity is surplus.
After four consecutive months of withdrawals, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) injected Rs 20,200 crore into Indian equities in July, driven by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings, and a more favourable global environment.
To meet liquidity pressure because of advance tax outflows this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a measured approach with its latest announcement of open-market operations (OMOs), worth Rs 1 trillion.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over tariff uncertainties.
Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank), or FCNR (B), deposits have significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a more than 1 per cent depreciation of the rupee against the dollar this week. Analysts point to fading RBI support measures, tepid interest due to rising global bond yields, and narrowing interest rate spreads compared to 2013 as key challenges.
That means making it easier to invest, protecting investors through predictable rules, and avoiding policy reversals after investments have been made, notes Rajeswari Sengupta.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen into a deficit for the first time in nearly three months, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to inject 1.41 trillion through a seven-day variable rate repo (VRR) auction to ease the temporary tightness.
The banking regulator is scheduled to come out with its monetary policy for FY 09 on April 29. "We will wait for the (RBI's) policy statement before taking any decision on our interest rates," ICICI Bank Managing Director & CEO K V Kamath told reporters on the sidelines of an Indian Merchants Chamber-organised press conference in Mumbai on Thursday. Interest rate decisions would also be influenced by prevailing market conditions, Kamath said.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
The Reserve Bank hinted at a marginal hike in key policy rates when it reviews its monetary stance tomorrow, saying inflation was still above the comfort zone and that there was uptick in credit to non-food sectors.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
The measures announced by it risk backfiring, disrupting the foreign exchange market, and intensifying the very pressures they seek to contain, with broader consequences for the economy points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
RBI, in its first bi-monthly monetary policy statement, left the short-term lending rate, or repo rate, unchanged at 8 per cent and the cash reserve ratio static at 4 per cent.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and PowerGrid were also among the laggards.
The overall inflation in March fell to 5.96 per cent, much below Reserve Bank of India estimate.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that recent regulatory measures to address foreign exchange market volatility, such as capping banks' net open positions, are temporary and aligned with current market conditions, not signalling any structural shift in policy.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly 4 per cent higher, mirroring gains in global markets.
The RBI said that strong signs of fiscal consolidation are necessary to create a space for lowering policy rate without the risk of resurgent inflation.
'Banking is the only sector that can see double-digit growth in FY27.'
The Indian government has extended the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side, for another five years until March 2031.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy review.
